In its update released on 8 October 2026, the World Trade Organization raised its forecast for merchandise trade volume growth to 3.9% in 2026, from 1.9% projected in March. Its projection for 2027 is 4.1%.
The WTO attributes the revision to stronger investment in AI-related equipment and the adjustment of supply chains to disruptions. The outlook for commercial services is more subdued, with growth forecast at 3.3% in 2026.
These figures are forecasts, not confirmed full-year results. For sourcing decisions, businesses still need to check product-level availability, transport options and agreed commercial terms.